By Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post
Israel’s fear of unrest in Egypt is not irrational. For 30 years Israelis have lived without the fear of an Egyptian attack. And now they see Iran’s proxy in control of Lebanon, the Muslim Brotherhood knocking at the door in Egypt and the ongoing problem of an Iran surrogate (Hamas) in Gaza. But there has also been a shift. Israelis will say that there has been a positive shift in America and the West from insistence on a swift departure for Hosni Mubarak to support for a more orderly, extended path to an Egypt with a more democratic government after Mubarak leaves office.
I’m not sure whether the United States has changed all that much (in its total incoherence it’s hard to discern if the mushy rhetoric is shifting in any particular direction). But it is fair to say that while by no means optimistic, Israelis have begun to come to terms with the reality: There is going to be something post Mubarak. That might be, in an ideal world, a secular democracy.
Indeed, at the Herzliya Conference deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon said as much on a panel discussion. He spoke about a Turkish model and the potential for an outcome that would not be a threat to Israel.
Savvy Israelis understand that diplomacy requires that one deal with reality — where we are now. In that regard, the Obama administration and the Israeli government have similar interests. Both the United States and Israel would prefer to find a combination of secular and military forces to prepare Egypt for the transition to what one hopes will be no worse than the 2011 Turkey option. And considering the options and the unsustainability of Mubarak, Turkey 2011 (complete with a functioning economy) may not be a step backward from an economically impoverished Egypt that is seething with anger and increasingly anti-Semitic.
Imagine, however, what this does to Israel’s willingness to “take risks” for peace. If a 30-year peace treaty can be imperiled, should Israelis and Americans expect a Palestinian deal (even if one could be reached) to last a 10th as long? No doubt a more reliable and warmer U.S.-Israel relationship would give Israel some confidence in these troubled times. However, as we know, everyone must deal with the reality that is — an overwhelmed and out-of-its-depth U.S. administration, our diminished influence in the region (also due to Obama’s ineptitude), and the collapse of repressive, aging despots unable to guarantee peace and stability. It certainly doesn’t provide comfort to Israel or anyone else when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is already putting out the welcome mat for the Muslim Brotherhood. (“In an interview airing Sunday on National Public Radio, Clinton was noncommittal about the fundamentalist group’s role in talks to try to end Egypt’s political crisis, but she said that the decision suggests ‘at least they are now involved.’ “) Yes, it’s going to be a bumpy road, but there is no going back.
