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ΑρχικήEnglishGreek Recovery Makes Stocks World’s Best as Paulson Circles

Greek Recovery Makes Stocks World’s Best as Paulson Circles

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Greek stocks, once shunned by investors concerned that a default would force the nation out of the euro, are beating almost every market in the world as a six-year recession eases and new investors consider purchases.

Since June 5, 2012, two weeks before MSCI Inc. gave notice it may reclassify Greece as an emerging market, the country’s ASE Index (ASE) has surged 146 percent, trimming the decline from its 2007 peak to 79 percent. The gains topped all 94 national benchmarks globally in the period, except Venezuela, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Yields on Greece’s 10-year government bonds have dropped to 8.31 percent from a peak of 33.7 percent in March 2012.

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Paulson & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have bought shares as emerging-market funds including Renaissance Capital Holdings Ltd. and Templeton Emerging Markets Group expressed interest. JPMorgan’s Francesco Conte, who dumped Greek stocks from his European Small Cap Fund more than three years ago as the government’s budget deficit spiraled, has purchased stakes in retailer Jumbo SA (BELA) and jewelry maker Folli Follie SA after the world’s biggest sovereign debt restructuring. 

“The outlook for the country has completely changed,” Conte, who manages about $2.8 billion in London, said by phone on Oct. 24. “I’m very overweight Greece because I find very, very good opportunities, very well-run companies and very cheap valuations. Greece is only just emerging from the crisis. Because they’ve cut their cost bases so low, the profitability growth is going to be enormous if we get positive GDP growth.”

Budget Deficit

The Greek recession shows signs of easing after the Mediterranean country cut wages and pensions and increased taxes to meet targets linked to its two bailouts from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras plans to trim the budget deficit to 2.4 percent next year, down from 9 percent in 2012 and a peak of 15.7 percent in 2009. The government forecast on Oct. 7 that gross domestic product will increase 0.6 percent next year, the first annual expansion since 2007.

Flows into equity funds investing in Greece rose 129 percent from the beginning of the year through Oct. 28, compared with a 15 percent gain for Europe as a whole, data from EPFR Global Inc. show. Investors have poured $179 million into Greek stocks this year, according to the data. 

Greek Yogurt

“Only nine months ago, global sentiment was, ‘I don’t want to touch anything Greek, not even Greek yogurt,’” Anthimos Thomopoulos, deputy chief executive officer of Piraeus Bank SA in Athens, said by phone yesterday. “Now investors don’t want to see anything but Greece. It’s a strange, idiosyncratic market, where you put money in a developed economy, albeit in distress, with emerging-market type of growth expectations with a strong currency.”

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MSCI, whose equity gauges are tracked by investors with about $7 trillion in assets, confirmed it would switch Greece to an emerging market in June this year, having classified it as developed since 2001. The change, the first time the index provider had demoted a developed nation, will leave Greece as about 0.4 percent of the MSCI developing-country gauge, compared with 0.02 percent of the one it’s in now.

Emerging-market funds with a mandate to follow MSCI indexes will be allowed to invest in Greek stocks after the change takes effect following the close of trading on Nov. 26. Mark Mobius, who oversees $53 billion as executive chairman of Templeton, said he is looking at listed banks, retail, manufacturing and fashion companies. 

Mobius Realization

“Despite Greece’s problems, we still see potential long-term opportunities,” Mobius said in e-mailed comments yesterday. “There is a realization that Greece is recovering, and, with continuing reforms, the growth could improve significantly.”

Bears say the stocks rally has already priced in Greece’s economic improvement. The 60-member ASE trades at 32 times its companies’ estimated earnings, compared with a five-year median of 11 times and 14.9 times projected profit for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Stocks have been moving up very strongly on the back of anticipation that things will improve in Greece,” William de Vijlder, who oversees $657 billion as Brussels-based chief investment officer at BNP Paribas SA, said by phone on Oct. 24. “The market is trading at a premium on a price-to-earnings basis that is quite significant.” 

Political Disputes

The nation faces political disputes that may derail its recovery, with debt forecast to peak at 176 percent of GDP this year. Samaras’s government, with a majority of just five in the 300-seat parliament, must approve a budget by the end of the year. In a Marc SA survey of voters between Oct. 1 and Oct. 7, the prime minister’s New Democracy party won 22.7 percent approval, while the main opposition Syriza party, which opposes the terms of Greece’s bailout, got 22.5 percent.

For Kevin Gardiner at Barclays Plc, the risks mean investors can find better opportunities in Italy or Spain.

“Greece is such a small, volatile market that it wouldn’t be appropriate for us to single it out to our clients,” Gardiner, head of investment strategy at Barclays’s wealth-management unit, which oversees $326 billion, said by phone on Oct. 23. “On a risk-adjusted basis, there are better positions elsewhere in the rest of the periphery.” 

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