ON FEBRUARY 11th the “Eurogroup”—the finance ministers of the 19 countries that use the euro—will meet in Brussels to try to find a way out of the latest phase of the Greek crisis. Just a few months ago Greece seemed to be on the mend. After six years of recession the economy had started to grow and unemployment appeared to have peaked. The government was preparing to conclude the final phase of its second bail-out. What went wrong?

 
Politics, in a word. After a miscalculation by Antonis Samaras, the previous prime minister, the country was forced into a snap election on January 25th. Syriza, a left-wing party fiercely opposed to the austerity that was a condition of the bail-outs, won the vote, entering into coalition with a small group of right-wing nationalists. Many of Greece’s euro-zone partners rashly assumed that once in office Alexis Tsipras, the prime minister, would perform what in Greece is known as a kolotoumba (“somersault”), reversing his campaign pledges. Instead he and his leather-clad finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, doubled down, suggesting exotic ways to re-engineer Greece’s debt and refusing pleas to extend Greece’s bail-out, which runs out at the end of February. 
 
They have encountered a euro zone unusually united in its opposition. Even countries like France and Italy who might otherwise be sympathetic to Mr Tsipras’s anti-austerity message ruled out debt haircuts, not least because they would lose out themselves. The European Central Bank cut off its main line of support to Greek banks. The Germans have taken a particularly tough line: never in a mood to indulge Greek demands, they also fear emboldening Syriza-like populists in other peripheral euro-zone countries like Spain. Moreover, say many officials, the euro zone is much better shape to handle a Greek departure than it was the last time that seemed possible. That strengthens their hand in negotiations.
 
No one wants a so-called “Grexit”. And yet it is becoming harder to make out the parameters of a potential deal. Greece wants permission to issue short-term treasury bills to solve its short-term financing difficulties. But the ECB does not appear minded to allow that if Greece leaves its bail-out. Nor will it release profits worth around €1.9 billion from an earlier bond-buying programme. For their part the Greeks have indicated that they may be open to a further bail-out in a few months’ time, perhaps under a different name and administered by a different group of institutions from the hated “troika” (the European Commission, ECB and IMF). But without a commitment from Greece to deepen structural reforms, that will not fly in Europe. The Eurogroup meeting is unlikely to run smoothly.