Russia seems more driven by self-interest than ideology. Turkey is not much different
By ANCHAL VOHRA, Observer Research Foundation
Turkey and Russia have emerged as the strangest of bedfellows in the Middle East in recent times. While on one hand, Putin and Erdogan signed economically lucrative deals in energy, military, and other sectors, and appeared like the new best friends, they backed rivals in the region’s conflict zones on the other. Russia and Turkey are engaged in a high-stakes competition in the Middle East vying for influence. They presented themselves as the key arbiters in the Syrian war for years and recently turned the focus to Libya. Turkey is supporting the Government of National Accord [GNA] — led by Prime Minister Ferraz al-Serraj and recognised by the United Nations. Russia is siding with the challenger — renegade General Khalifa Haftar, who controls the eastern part of the country and began an offensive to bring Tripoli — the capital city, under his fold in April last year.
Russia and Turkey are engaged in a high-stakes competition in the Middle East vying for influence.
Libya catapulted into chaos soon after an uprising against the country’s eccentric dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The protestors wanted Gaddafi toppled and democracy installed. His own people beat him to death but the country did not change for the better, instead, it turned into bedlam with several claimants to power backed by foreign patrons. PM Serraj’s interim government or the GNA is supported by the Libyan branch of Muslim Brotherhood — an Islamist organisation historically split between those advocating the outright implementation of Sharia and those who propagate political Islam. Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is an ardent follower of the brotherhood and has actively funded co-believers in the region — earlier anti-Assad rebels in Syria and now pro-brotherhood GNA in Libya. However, Russia has traditionally been allied with anti-Islamist dictators. Haftar and his self-styled Libyan National Army [LNA] are seen as secular albeit autocratic forces.
But unlike Syria, Russia’s man in Libya is on a back foot and seems to be losing.
Recently, Turkey flew its F-16s in Libyan skies to display its intentions that it would actively intervene militarily if required. While Erdogan has not deployed Turkish boots on the ground, he stepped up support and handed over the Bayraktar TB2 drones — a medium-altitude but long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle, to GNA. These drones were a match for, if not more effective than, Wing Loong or the Chinese drones that General Haftar had been supplied by its other ally — the United Arab Emirates. The UAE followed Egypt in the Libyan theatre because both the monarchy and the dictatorship consider political Islam of the Muslim Brotherhood as their nemesis. But the tide turned in GNA’s favour after Turkey provided it with its state-of-art air defence system. The battle between the drones was indecisive, Turkey’s air defence system, however, gave Ferraz Serraj the edge he was looking for.
The UAE followed Egypt in the Libyan theatre because both the monarchy and the dictatorship consider political Islam of the Muslim Brotherhood as their nemesis. But the tide turned in GNA’s favour after Turkey provided it with its state-of-art air defence system.
Haftar had dreamt of sitting in Tripoli by now, but instead, he has lost a string of towns. Moreover GNA’s fighters have besieged the city of Tarhouna, his western stronghold and a critical supply line for his forces.
Russian mercenaries, members of a security company called Wagner, have been aiding Haftar but not from the front. Many Russian analysts say that Russia is upset with Haftar over his behavioural issues and is considering alternatives to him, including GNA’s leader PM Serraj. Russia has indeed signed oil deals with the UN-backed and Turkey armed government.
Max Suchkov, a Russian analyst, said there are different theories about what is motivating Russia’s Libya policy. “First, the Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry may be showcasing a classic interagency rivalry, each with a stake in a different party — Government of National Accord Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj by the Foreign Ministry, and Hafter by the Defense Ministry,” he said. Secondly, he said, Russia may be diversifying its toolbox, channels of contacts and hedging the potential risks of placing all its eggs in one basket. “Therefore, different state and non-state agencies engaging with different actors on the ground make perfect sense.” However, it is possible that Moscow has indeed made its decision in favour of Hafter for the long-term and the outreach to Sarraj’s people is a facade of multilateralism so Russia can claim to be an objective mediator.
Russia seems more driven by self-interest than ideology. Turkey is not much different.
Whatever their motivations, Russia and Turkey have successfully carved up the region between themselves and left the US and Europe largely out of the picture.
In November last year, Erdogan signed an agreement on maritime boundaries in the east Mediterranean with PM Serraj of the GNA whom he supports. The agreement threatens to block the EastMed project: a proposed Cypriot-Greek-Israeli pipeline to Europe. Turkey was left out of the pipeline because of the historical dispute over Cyprus. It is the third-largest island in the Mediterranean split into a Turkish half in the north and a Greek half in the south since 1974. Both sides claim sovereignty over the valuable gas reserves discovered ten years ago off the coast of Cyprus. Erdogan intends for Turkey to partake in the exploits and can now count on the support of the UN-backed party in Libya.
Whatever their motivations, Russia and Turkey have successfully carved up the region between themselves and left the US and Europe largely out of the picture.
