By David Sadler, Globe Eco,
Since the devastating 7.8-magnitude earthquake occurred last month along the Syrian-Turkish border, humanitarian aid continues to come to Turkey from all over the world. Other countries helped in the rescue effort, including close friends of Turkey, as well as some countries that had some big problems with Turkey.
Greece, Turkey’s close neighbor, which experienced great tensions in its relations with Turkey in 2022 and the beginning of 2023, rushed to intervene quickly to help the Turks suffering from the disaster. The bright side of this disaster could be a marked improvement in relations between Athens and Ankara.
Despite the fraught relations between them, Greece was one of the countries that sent rescue teams to Turkey to rescue the victims. Greece, which is a member of the European Union, plays a pivotal role in mobilizing resources to help Turkey, which appreciated these efforts by Greece. This gratitude quickly appeared in the Turkish media since February 6, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s spokesperson and foreign policy advisor publicly expressed their thanks to Greece for its assistance on February 10.
“Greece did what it needed to do, in a spirit of solidarity, under difficult circumstances,” said George Tzogopoulos, Senior Officer at the International Center for European Training. But what I found very impressive was the interest of Greek citizens in sending food and clothes to those affected by the earthquake in Turkey.
Diplomacy is not new
In fact, “earthquake diplomacy” is not new to Turkish-Greek relations. On August 17, 1999, an earthquake occurred in the Turkish Marmara region, killing about 20,000 people and destroying about 100,000 buildings.
Relations were bad between the two parties, but Greece forgot that and provided a lot of assistance to those affected by the earthquake. The following month, a devastating earthquake occurred in Athens, killing 98 people, while leaving 50,000 homeless. At once the Turks came to the aid of their neighbours. This was followed by an improvement in the relationship between the two countries for a decade.
A quarter of a century later, “earthquake diplomacy” is back again, which ushers in a new era of warm Turkish-Greek relations. And it is unlikely that these warm relations will alleviate Greece’s fears that the ruling establishment in Ankara will benefit from the tensions between the two countries, but these concerns among the Greeks faded last month.
de-escalation
Ronald Menardos, head of the Mediterranean program at the “Hellenic” Foundation for European Policy, which is based in Athens, told us: “This catastrophic earthquake opened the door to de-escalation in relations between the two countries.” He added: “This diplomacy began between them, as the Minister of Foreign Affairs visited Greek, Nikos Dendias, southern Turkey, ”according to Minardos. This visit constitutes “a wonderful step that comes along with this overwhelming solidarity,” at a time when officials in Ankara and Athens are talking about opening a “new page” in bilateral relations.
Relations between Ankara and Athens seem to be warming, as Greek aid to Turkey has Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis talking to each other for the first time since March last year.
In another situation, the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, spoke at length about the possibilities of détente between the two neighboring countries, and even presented a six-point proposal to Greece with the aim of improving bilateral relations.
Implications for Washington’s foreign policy
Tension between Greece and Turkey has long divided the transatlantic alliance. Therefore, at a time when the administration of US President Joe Biden is working hard to strengthen the unity of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), any improvement in relations between Ankara and Athens would be good news for Washington.
The United States will be very happy if there are warm relations between Ankara and Athens, during the past few weeks, that lead to rapprochement, cooperation and lasting solidarity between the two countries, allies of the United States.
While the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, was speaking in the Greek capital on February 21, he said: “It is in our interest to improve relations between Greece and Turkey, and I believe that it will also be in the interest of the two countries to find appropriate ways to resolve the entrenched differences.”
In the context of the war in Ukraine, the geostrategic roles played by Greece and Turkey became more important in the eyes of the United States and the rest of the NATO members. Therefore, the improvement of relations between Athens and Ankara will be in the interest of Washington’s national security in this part of the Mediterranean. “We want our allies to have a good relationship with each other,” said former US diplomat Matteo Brisa, stressing that Greece and Turkey “provide a very important geographical area for NATO and military bases as well.”
It’s not easy
However, the fact that US policymakers seek to make Turkish-Greek relations warmer does not mean that this will be easy. In view of the extent of the tension that prevailed over the relations between the two countries in 2022 and the beginning of 2023, there are many open questions about the ease of any transformation in the relations between the two parties.
“It is too early to say whether there will be a tangible result from the initial warming of relations between Greece and Turkey,” Dr. Serhat Suha Kupakoglu, a researcher at Trends Research and Consulting, said in an interview with us. The history of relations between the two countries is full of bumps, and the United States is no longer committed to intervening or acting as a balanced mediator to solve the most pressing issues, such as the gray areas of the islands and rocks in the Aegean Sea.
Turkish politics has become more independent in a world that tends towards multipolarity, which has resulted in Washington’s diminishing influence in Ankara, compared to the previous historical period. Over the coming months, it will be important to monitor any possible changes in Turkish foreign policy with regard to parts of the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. And if Turkey’s claims in this area disappear, it will be easy for the Biden administration to bridge views between Turkey and Greece as allies in NATO.
• Greece, which is a member of the European Union, plays a pivotal role in mobilizing resources to help Turkey.
• The United States will be very happy if there are warm relations between Ankara and Athens.
Giorgio Cavier, CEO of Gulf State Analytics
Emily Camelli is a political researcher
